US Election 2024: Five key factors behind Trump's resounding victory
PTC Web Desk: In an unprecedented political resurgence, Republican Donald Trump has secured a historic victory, defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to become the 47th President of the United States. At 78, Trump will set a record as the oldest person to assume the presidency when inaugurated on January 20, 2025. His return to power marks a remarkable comeback, surpassing the margins of his previous election wins. Despite facing a criminal conviction and enduring two impeachments, Trump’s tenacity has once again propelled him to the White House, bringing with him a fresh and unconventional team poised to shape the nation’s future.
Let's have a look at the five factors behind Trump's resounding win
Assassination attempt becomes a turning point
On July 13, 2024, during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. As Trump was delivering his speech on stage, gunfire erupted, and a bullet from an AR-Style 556 rifle missed him, but grazed his ear, causing an injury. Trump later remarked that the difference between life and death was mere seconds. He claimed that if he hadn’t turned his head by 0.05 seconds, the bullet would have struck his head.
The image of Trump raising a defiant fist into the air shortly after the incident went viral and resonated deeply with the American public. Despite the incident, Trump continued to campaign, winning admiration for his resilience. According to political prediction platform Polymarket, Trump's favourability surged by 8% following the attempt, reaching an all-time high of 70%. Historical parallels were drawn to President Ronald Reagan, who survived an assassination attempt in 1981 and went on to lead the Republican Party to a record win three years later.
Focus on Swing States secured electoral victory
Securing the presidency in the US requires at least 270 electoral votes, and the support of key swing states often decides the winner. In the 2024 election, Trump successfully captured these pivotal states, securing a significant portion of the 93 electoral votes spread across seven swing states. His victory in Pennsylvania, which holds the most electoral votes among them with 19, was particularly notable. Trump edged out Kamala Harris by 3%, receiving 51% of the vote compared to Harris' 48%. Pennsylvania, considered the "kingmaker state," has historically been crucial for any presidential hopeful.
Prior to 2024, Republicans had only won Pennsylvania once since 1992, when Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton by 0.7% in 2016. However, Joe Biden reclaimed the state in 2020 by a 1.2% margin. This year, support from prominent figures such as Elon Musk bolstered Trump's campaign. Musk's endorsement included a unique campaign strategy where he pledged to award $1 million (approximately ?8.40 crore) to a randomly selected voter each day leading up to the election. This initiative, targeted exclusively at the seven swing states, incentivised registered voters to sign a petition supporting freedom of speech and gun rights, with those in Pennsylvania receiving $100 and voters in other swing states receiving $47 for their participation.
Promises that captivated voters
Trump's campaign promises played a pivotal role in attracting voters. Some of the key pledges included: Resolving the Russia-Ukraine war before his inauguration, and actively working with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the Israel-Gaza conflict swiftly.
Implementing strict measures to remove illegal immigrants from the US, pledging to use all necessary powers to enforce this.
Eliminating taxes on tips, requiring legislative action from Congress
Stopping taxation on Social Security income
Halting federal funding for schools promoting critical race theory and transgender education
Reaching across racial divides and engaging Muslim community
Trump's reputation among Black voters had long been a point of contention. In 2016, he garnered only 8% of the Black vote. However, in 2024, exit polls indicated that he secured 12%, showing a shift in perception. This change was attributed to Trump’s efforts to reshape his image and outreach to diverse communities.
Trump also made significant inroads with Muslim voters, who had traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party. In September 2024, Trump visited Michigan and met with influential Muslim leaders, including the city’s first Muslim mayor, Amer Ghalib. This outreach was strategic, especially as President Joe Biden faced criticism for supporting Israel during the Middle East conflict, which led to discontent among Muslim Americans. Trump positioned himself as a more peace-focused alternative, appealing to those dissatisfied with the Democratic stance.
Promising to end costly foreign conflicts
In his victory speech, Trump declared, "I won’t start wars, I’ll end wars," tapping into the public's frustration over the US's involvement in foreign conflicts and the accompanying financial burden. Throughout his campaign, Trump emphasised his intent to end the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, claiming he had urged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to find a quick resolution.
The US had been providing extensive financial support to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war and had also backed Israel since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October 2023. Trump's promise to limit US involvement in foreign wars and cut related expenses resonated with voters who viewed such engagements as a wasteful drain on national resources.
Adding to Trump's advantage was the widespread dissatisfaction with President Biden’s policies. A pre-election poll revealed that 74% of respondents were dissatisfied with the country’s current direction. Kamala Harris, as Biden's running mate and former Vice President, bore the brunt of this anti-incumbency sentiment. The perception of Biden's failures, especially related to the Middle East policy, further contributed to Trump’s successful campaign.
- With inputs from agencies
