Kamala Harris predicted to be next US president by ‘election nostradamus’ who accurately forecasted 9 of the last 10 elections
PTC News Desk: Allan Lichtman, an American historian known as the "Election Nostradamus" for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten U.S. presidential elections, has forecasted that Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. Lichtman’s predictions, unlike conventional polls, are based on a set of "13 keys" he developed in 1981 with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. These keys include a range of political, economic, and social factors that he believes determine the outcome of presidential elections.
Lichtman’s 13 keys assess areas such as incumbency, midterm gains, third-party candidates, the state of the economy (both short-term and long-term), social unrest, White House scandals, incumbent and challenger charisma, and foreign policy success or failure. According to Lichtman, Harris currently has eight of these keys in her favor, enough to secure the presidency.
"Kamala Harris is strong on eight of the 13 metrics, which gives her the keys to the White House," Lichtman asserts.
Lichtman is especially well-known for accurately predicting Donald Trump's surprising 2016 victory, despite widespread polling that suggested Hillary Clinton would win. However, some critics note that while Lichtman did forecast Trump’s overall victory, he incorrectly predicted that Trump would also win the popular vote, which Clinton won by nearly 3 million votes. His only major error in predictions came in 2000, when he forecasted that Al Gore would win against George W. Bush. Gore did win the popular vote, but the electoral outcome was ultimately decided by the U.S. Supreme Court in favor of Bush.
In his analysis of the 2024 election, Lichtman notes that Harris holds eight of the keys in her favour, compared to three for Donald Trump. According to Lichtman, Trump’s advantages include the sitting administration gaining seats in the 2022 midterms, the incumbent (or vice-president) running for reelection, and Harris's perceived lack of charisma. Lichtman suggests that the two remaining keys, dealing with foreign policy outcomes, could potentially swing in Trump’s favor depending on events leading up to the election.
As Election Day nears, traditional polls show Harris with a slight lead, but the margin remains within the error range. Early voting is set to begin shortly after the first presidential debate on September 10.
Both campaigns are experiencing internal defections. The Trump campaign recently highlighted support from the estranged brother of Harris's running mate, Tim Walz, and other family members. On the other hand, Harris's campaign received a major boost when former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney endorsed her. Cheney, the daughter of former U.S. vice-president Dick Cheney and a longtime conservative figure, has been vocal in her opposition to Trump. In her endorsement, Cheney expressed deep concerns about Trump’s impact on the country.
"I would vote for Harris because of the danger Trump poses to the United States," Cheney stated, marking a significant cross-party endorsement ahead of the election.
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- With inputs from agencies
