Union Budget 2024: Nirmala Sitharaman presents Economic Survey 2023-24 in Lok Sabha; projects GDP growth of 6.5–7%
Union Budget 2024: Union Budget 2024: As the nation gears up for the Union Budget 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2023-24 in Lok Sabha.
As per the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Monday, the Indian economy is on a strong wicket and stable footing, demonstrating resilience in the face of geopolitical challenges
The Indian economy has consolidated its post-Covid recovery with policymakers - fiscal and monetary - ensuring economic and financial stability, the 476-page Economic Survey document said in its initial remarks. It asserted that the economy continues to expand.
GDP growth of 6.5–7 per cent in FY25
Economic Survey 2023-24 conservatively projects a real GDP growth of 6.5–7 per cent in FY25, with risks evenly balanced, cognizant of the fact that the market expectations are on the higher side.
RBI and IMF project India's inflation to stabilize at 4.5% in FY25
The RBI and the IMF have projected that India's consumer price inflation will progressively align towards the inflation target in FY26. Assuming a normal monsoon and no further external or policy shocks, the RBI expects headline inflation to be 4.5 per cent in FY25 and 4.1 per cent in FY26. IMF10 has projected an inflation rate of 4.6 per cent in 2024 and 4.2 per cent in 2025 for India: Economic Survey 2023-24
Economic Survey advocates for trust and responsibility
"The economic survey read "The tripartite compact that this country needs to become a developed nation amidst emerging unprecedented global challenges is for governments to trust and let go, for the private sector to reciprocate the trust with long-term thinking and fair conduct and for the public to take responsibility for their finances and their physical and mental health.""
The Economic Survey document, prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance and formulated under the supervision of the chief economic adviser, will give insights into the state of the economy and various indicators of 2023-24 (April-March) and some outlook for the current year.
The Economy Survey document may also give some idea about the tone and texture of the actual Budget for 2024-25, to be presented on Tuesday.
Economic Survey provides an exhaustive review of the highs and lows of the Indian economy, offering insights derived from the previous year's budget implementation. This document plays a pivotal role in shaping expectations and strategies for the upcoming fiscal year.
The first economic survey reportedly came into existence in 1950-51, when it used to be a part of the budget documents. In the 1960s, it was separated from the Budget documents and presented the day before the Union Budget.
The Survey document also adds new need-based chapters that need focus.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has revised its GDP forecast for 2024-25 to 7.2 percent from 7 percent, citing robust domestic demand. Similarly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased India’s 2024 growth projection from 6.8 percent to 7 percent, solidifying India’s position as the fastest-growing economy in emerging markets.
The IMF's previous projections for 2024 were 6.5 percent, later revised to 6.8 percent, and now to 7 percent. Official data shows India’s GDP grew by 8.2 percent in 2023-24, following growth rates of 7.2 percent in 2022-23 and 8.7 percent in 2021-22.
However, the RBI projects inflation at 4.5 percent for 2024-25. Food inflation nearly doubled year-on-year in June to 8.36 percent from 4.63 percent, driving overall retail inflation higher. Although within the RBI's 2-6 percent comfort range, it exceeds the ideal 4 percent. Since May 2022, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points to curb inflation, acknowledging that prolonged high food inflation is no longer transitory
- With inputs from agencies
