US Election 2024: How a Trump return could impact Indian workers and immigration policies | Explained
US election 2024: As the United States is witnessing the 2024 presidential election, many wonder how Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House (Trump 2.0) could impact US-India relations. The former president has made his intentions clear: a focus on "America First" policies that aim to prioritise American interests. This shift could bring both opportunities and challenges for India. Recently, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar noted that regardless of who wins the presidency—be it Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—the US might become more inward-looking.
The close relationship between Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been evident in events like “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste Trump.” However, a second Trump administration could alter key areas of cooperation, including trade, immigration, military alliances, and diplomatic ties.
Trade relations: Opportunities and barriers
Trump's approach to foreign policy often involves reshaping international agreements to benefit the United States. During his first term, he withdrew from several major agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal. If elected again, Trump’s plans to revisit such deals could impact America's partnerships worldwide, including with India.
Trade will likely be a significant area of focus. Trump has previously criticised India’s high tariffs on foreign products and hinted at imposing a “reciprocal tax” to balance trade. Just last month, he stated, “India is the biggest tariff charger of all. We have a great relationship, and Modi is a fantastic leader, but the tariffs are too high.”
If Donald Trump introduces new tariff policies, Indian sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles could feel the pressure. These industries heavily depend on the American market, and higher tariffs could hurt exports. On the bright side, Trump's efforts to economically distance the US from China could benefit India. American companies seeking to diversify their supply chains may look to India as a reliable manufacturing partner, opening doors for investment.
Immigration challenges for Indian workers
Trump’s strict stance on immigration, particularly the H-1B visa programme, caused difficulties for Indian professionals during his first term. His administration attempted to raise salary thresholds for foreign workers and add new restrictions, affecting Indian tech talent and IT firms. If these measures are reintroduced, Indian professionals and companies that rely on the US for business could face challenges.
Foreign Minister Jaishankar acknowledged that, while Trump may be tough on trade and immigration, he has always expressed a positive outlook toward India and Prime Minister Modi. “Trade and immigration negotiations could be tough,” Jaishankar had said, “but Trump has spoken highly of the relationship with India.”
Defence and military cooperation: A mixed outlook
Defence partnerships have been a strong pillar of India-US relations, with recent collaborations including the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and the GE-HAL jet engine deal. While Trump's critical view of alliances like NATO raises questions about how he might treat international military pacts, the shared interest in countering China in the Indo-Pacific region could sustain India-US defence cooperation.
Under Trump's leadership, the Quad—a strategic alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia—was elevated to counter China’s influence. If Trump returns, military ties could continue to flourish, with more arms deals, technology transfers, and joint exercises. However, he may adopt a more cautious approach to commitments, focusing on what he perceives as America’s strategic needs.
Counterterrorism and security
Trump’s “Peace through Strength” philosophy might also work in India’s favour, particularly in dealing with security threats from Pakistan. India has consistently advocated for stronger US action against terrorism emanating from across its borders. A Trump administration could align with this goal, supporting India’s stance on cross-border terrorism and maintaining a firm approach toward Pakistan.
Diplomatic relations: The balancing act
Diplomatically, a second Trump term would likely involve complex negotiations. While Trump has praised Narendra Modi and the friendship between the two nations, his protectionist policies could make discussions around trade and investment more complicated. Yet, his administration’s tough posture on China could result in enhanced strategic cooperation.
India must prepare for a dynamic scenario if Trump wins. On the one hand, opportunities could arise in trade and technology partnerships, especially as the US continues to pull back from Chinese influence. On the other hand, stricter immigration rules and potential tariff disputes could pose challenges.
- With inputs from agencies
