The Downfall of Sheikh Hasina: Ousted Bangladesh PM was warned by India about Gen Wacker-us-Zaman
General Waker-us-Zaman's appointment as Army Chief in June 2023 has probably proved to be a turning point in Hasina's political career
Bangladesh protests: The political crisis in Bangladesh has led to the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who faced significant opposition from within her own government and the military. The catalyst for this downfall was her decision to appoint General Waker-us-Zaman as Army Chief in June 2023, despite warnings from Indian national security officials about his pro-China inclinations. This decision proved to be a turning point in her political career.
Notably, top Indian officials had cautioned Sheikh Hasina about General Zaman's pro-China stance before his appointment. Ignoring these warnings, she proceeded with the appointment on June 23, 2023. Instead of addressing the rising youth protests in Bangladesh, General Zaman issued an ultimatum to Sheikh Hasina, suggesting her she leave the country along with her sister. This move significantly weakened her position and led to her eventual downfall.
The release of BNP leader Khaleda Zia by the military junta further signaled a shift in the country's political landscape. Islamist organisations such as Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatrashibir are now poised to play a more prominent role in Bangladesh's politics. Sheikh Hasina had already expressed her reluctance to contest the January 2024 general elections as early as April 2023. It was only after pressure from her supporters that she decided to run, knowing the threats posed by Islamists and regime change agents from the West.
Despite her ouster, India has remained supportive of Sheikh Hasina. The Modi government has promised not to abandon its ally and is considering offering political asylum to the ousted prime minister. The stability of Bangladesh is of paramount importance to India, given the potential for increased instability in the region.
While the military and radical groups celebrate Sheikh Hasina's departure, Bangladesh teeters on the brink of an economic crisis akin to those faced by Pakistan, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. The country will likely require assistance from Western-backed financial institutions to navigate these troubled waters. High unemployment rates could drive radical students affiliated with Jamaat-e-Islami to turn against the military if their demands are not met.
Challenges for India and the Region
Sheikh Hasina's ouster has left India in a precarious position. An Islamist-led regime in Bangladesh could pose a significant threat to India from its eastern border, adding to the instability in the neighbourhood. The Modi government is prepared to support the stabilisation of an interim government in Bangladesh. However, anti-Hasina factions in the West may initiate actions against India, complicating the situation further.