Modi government accelerates nuclear submarine deterrence strategy amidst rising tensions with China
Since 2023, China has stationed about 11 naval vessels in the Indian Ocean region each month. India has resorted to subsurface deterrent.
PTC News Desk: In a significant move this month, the Narendra Modi government has authorized the construction of two nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), marking a pivotal step in India's maritime strategy.
This decision signals a robust commitment to enhancing sub-surface deterrence capabilities, especially in light of vulnerabilities associated with deploying a third aircraft carrier, which is more susceptible to China's expanding arsenal of long-range missiles.
Growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean
The urgency behind prioritizing sub-surface deterrence becomes clear when considering the escalating presence of Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Since the beginning of 2023, at least ten Chinese warships, including ballistic missile tracking vessels and surveillance ships, have been operating in the region each month.
Currently, the Chinese surveillance ship Xiang Yang Hong 3 is stationed off the coast of Chennai in the South Bay of Bengal, while the ballistic missile tracker Yuan Wang 7 is positioned off the coast of Mauritius.
On average, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been deploying seven to eight warships and three to four quasi-military vessels in the IOR, a trend expected to increase as the PLA plans long-range patrols for its carrier-based task forces.
Enhancing deterrence and monitoring capabilities
In response to this heightened Chinese activity, Indian national security planners have opted for nuclear submarines to effectively deter and monitor PLAN movements, particularly in the southern Indian Ocean. India currently possesses two operational nuclear ballistic missile submarines, with a third, INS Aridhaman, set to be commissioned next year.
Notably, while the first in this class, INS Arihant, is equipped with 750-kilometer range K-15 nuclear ballistic missiles, its successors are outfitted with a combination of K-15 and the longer-range K-4 nuclear ballistic missiles, boasting a range of 3,500 kilometers.
On the front of nuclear-powered attack submarines, the Indian Navy is expected to receive a second Akula-class nuclear attack submarine on lease from Russia by 2028. However, the delivery of this lease has faced delays due to the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. The Indian Navy is actively pressing Moscow to expedite the availability of this vital asset by late 2027.
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Strategic priorities shift towards China
The decision to pursue the construction of two additional SSNs reflects a fundamental shift in India's strategic priorities. Historically, Pakistan was viewed as the primary adversary; however, the principal military threat now stems from Communist China. The aggressive maneuvers by Chinese forces in eastern Ladakh since May 2020 have compelled Indian security planners to consider enhanced sea deterrence capabilities, particularly as a significant portion of India's trade with East and North Asia transits near the Lakshadweep Islands and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
In addition to these nuclear capabilities, the Modi government has opted to procure three more advanced Kalvari (Scorpene) class submarines. While these diesel-electric attack submarines are intended to address regional threats, they also aim to position Mazagon Dockyards Limited as a hub for exporting Scorpene-class submarines to third countries in collaboration with France.
The developments outlined above underscore a clear trajectory for the future of the Indian Navy, emphasizing the critical role of nuclear options in addressing challenges posed by China and its proxies in the Indo-Pacific region. As India navigates these complex geopolitical waters, the strengthening of its sub-surface capabilities will be vital for ensuring national security and asserting its strategic interests in a rapidly evolving maritime landscape.
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